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越来越贵的情人节--性别经济学视角

　　

来源：微信公众号 性别经济学 

一年一度的情人2月14日，是节性济学浪漫的情人节，也是别经商家们的重要营销日。情人节已经变得越来越贵，视角据新浪财经报道，情人情人节的节性济学北京SKP，“上演了一场奢侈品“暗战”。别经在小红书等平台“宰”男友攻略上线。视角

《经济学人》选出全球庆祝情人节最昂贵的情人15个城市，上海排名全球第一，节性济学其次是别经纽约和圣彼得堡。

评选方法基于经济学人智库EIU的视角《全球生活成本指数》对全球173个城市350类商品的价格调查，其中选出浪漫夜晚的情人相关指标，包括在高档时尚酒店喝一杯、节性济学两人的别经两道菜晚宴、一场电影、出租车和一瓶酒的总价。（EIU调研全球商务人士，所以数字不全代表日常生活，仅作参考。）

上海作为全球浪漫价格最高的城市，一部分是上海本身物价高，在全球生活成本指数排名中排名前20位。另一部分原因，是中国失衡的性别比例，导致男性“竞争“女性的异常激烈，其中一种表现就在于给女性购买礼物。

今天发一篇之前的旧文，探讨中国性别比例失衡对女性是机遇还是威胁。其中曾提出：“根据供需原则，性别比例的失调会导致双方在婚姻市场的议价能力发生变化。。。高性别比使得男性-男性竞争更加激烈，但是不同社会竞争的类型和寻找伴侣的策略都有差异，取决于女性认为什么更重要。也许恰好在中国，节约以及长期的财务稳定比礼物以及短期物质利益更被女性看重。“

所以女性看重什么，决定了男性的竞争方向。如果看重礼物，男性追求者就会竞争赚钱。看重配偶育儿，男性就会学习顾家带孩子。看重颜值，男性就会开始保养和健身。看重知书达理，男性就着重饱读诗书，修养品行。

女性看重什么，很大程度是由社会文化和性别意识所影响。 同时，女性自我意识的觉醒，主动的选择，会影响和引领男性的行为。著名演化生物学家和社会生物学家Robert Trivers说过，“男性跟男性之间的竞争只是为了女性，所有其他方面的竞争都是为了更好影响这个最终的竞争”。

女性的选择，会影响一个国家的未来和方向。

原文作者：Alexander Van Kemenade

China‘s problem of excess boys over girls is not new． The new problem is excess men over women．

中国男孩数量大于女孩的问题已经不是新闻了。新的问题是成年男性多于成年女性。

China’s sex ratio imbalance at birth has been a well-documented phenomenon since sex-selective abortion took off as result of the one-child policy and the proliferation ultrasound devices in the 1990s． Yet disruption to society has thus far been limited since the imbalance has largely been confined to pre-marital generations （i.e． children and teenagers）． 

由于一孩政策和90年代超声设备的普及，基于性别的选择性流产造成中国出生性别比例的失衡。然而迄今为止，性别比例失衡对社会的破坏影响一直是有限的，因为这种不平衡在很大程度上被限制在了婚前一代（即儿童和青少年）。

Now that the sex-imbalanced generation is coming of age， its social effects will become more serious． A raft of studies suggests that the role of women in society may fundamentally change．

随着性别失衡的一代人步入成年，其社会影响将变得更加严重。一系列的研究表明，女性的社会角色可能发生根本性的改变。

Sex ratios are a pretty fundamental force in shaping the behaviour of a population． When they go out of kilter， strange things tend to happen． 

性别比例是塑造族群行为里相当重要的基础力量。当比例不再平衡时，奇怪的事情就开始发生了。

In 2014， the male-to-female ratio for the prime marriage age in China （age 20-24） was 1.06． That will rise to nearly 1.2 in the coming five years． In the animal kingdom， a population of excess males typically results in intensified mating competition， which can lead to a variety of effects on physical appearance and social behaviour．

2014年，中国初婚年龄段（20-24之间）男女比例是1.06。在未来5年，这个比例将上升至接近1.2。在动物王国里，雄性数量过剩通常会加剧交配竞争，这可能会对外貌和社会行为产生各种各样的影响。

Mating competition is generally regarded to lead to more pronounced sexual dimorphism， or differences in the appearance between males and females of a species． 

交配竞争通常被认为会导致更明显的性别二态性，或者是一个物种里雌雄两性间外形的差异。

雌猩猩：“我老觉得，你一点儿也不珍惜我的付出。”

雄猩猩：“我。的。天。啊”

For example， studies on baboons have found that when the number of males exceeds females in a local population， males tend to get larger in body size as a result of mate selection——bigger males tend to win fights over females and get to reproduce， thus creating larger future generations． Dimorphism is also found in other characteristics， such as canine and testes size （for those species where sperm competition is important）．

例如，有研究显示，如果某地的雄性狒狒数量超过雌性，作为择偶的结果，雄性的身形会变得更魁梧，因为身形更大的雄性能够赢得战斗从而获得雌性为其繁衍，并获得更多的后代。在其他特征上也能发现二态性，例如犬牙和睾丸的大小（对于那些精子竞争很重要的物种来说）。

In addition to changes in physique， changes in the sex ratio also affect reproductive strategies． 

除了体形的变化之外，性别比例的变化也会引起繁衍策略的改变。

For instance， when male-male competition is fierce， males are known to invest more effort in raising their offspring rather than in trying to find additional mates． In species that live in alpha male-dominated groups （such as gorillas）， mating competition can also increase the risk of infanticide by a non-resident male， leading females to enter into heat and reducing future competition．

例如，当男性与男性的竞争越来越激烈，男性会花更多的精力养育自己的后代，而不是去寻找其他的配偶。生活在男性占主导地位的群体中（如大猩猩），交配竞争也能增加非本群体的雄性杀婴的风险，导致雌性发情并且降低未来的竞争。

Do humans， pose any fundamental exception to this observation？ In most human societies， brute strength is no longer the key determinant of success in mating competition． Instead， one of the main arenas for mating competition is in the economic realm． And economic behaviour has been shown to change as a result of gender imbalances．

对于动物界这一现象人类有不同的表现吗？在大多数人类社会，蛮力不再是交配竞争成功的决定因素。相反，交配竞争的主战场之一是经济领域。研究发现性别比例失衡会引起经济行为的变化。

Consider for instance the impact of sex ratios on the female‘s decision to remain in the labour force． 

例如，性别比对女性留在劳动力市场行为的影响。

A study by Joshua Angrist， an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Techno， of immigrant communities in the United States showed that increases in the local sex ratio reduced female labour supply． Women were more likely to exit the labour force after marriage given the increased ease with which one could find a husband．

麻省理工大学（MIT）经济学家Joshua Angrist 在研究美国移民社群的问题时发现，一个地区性别比的提高降低了当地女性的劳动供给。由于女性寻找丈夫的概率提高，女性更有可能在结婚后离开劳动力市场。

Sex ratios can also affect household saving behaviour． 

性别比也会影响家庭储蓄行为。

Wei Shangjin （now Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank） and Zhang Xiaobo （professor at Peking University） concluded that roughly half of the substantial increase in China‘s household saving rate was attributable to the rise in sex ratios． Interestingly， the main subjects of the study were not the future grooms but their parents， who increased saving in order to improve their sons’ attractiveness in the marriage market by purchasing housing and other signals of eligibility． 

魏尚进（现任亚洲开发银行首席经济学家）和张晓波（北京大学教授）发现中国将近半数家庭储蓄率的提高可以归因为性别比的提高。有意思的是，这篇文章的研究主体并不是未来的新郎，而是他们的父母。父母增加储蓄是为了买房子，从而提高儿子在婚姻市场的吸引力。

Does an increase in the sex ratio always result in males saving more？

是否性别比上升总会导致男性储蓄更多？

A study by psychologists on US cities suggests otherwise． Vladas Griskevicius （University of Minnesota） and his co-authors conclude that higher sex ratios actually reduced saving in the short term since more intense male-male competition lead to men buying things more impulsively in an effort to impress their prospective mates． 

一项关于美国城市的心理学研究表明不尽其然。Vladas Griskevicius（明尼苏达大学）和他的合作者发现由于高性别比使得男性与男性的竞争更加激烈。因为男性会通过更加冲动的消费来给未来伴侣留下印象，所以高性别比实际上降低了短期储蓄。

Does this contradict the results in the China study？ Not necessarily． 

这项研究结果是否与中国的研究结果相矛盾呢？未必。

Higher sex ratios intensify male-male mating competition， but the nature of competition and mating tactics can vary across societies， depending on what the opposite sex find desirable． It may well be the case that in Chinese society， thriftiness and long-term financial stability are prized more by women than gifts and short-term material gain．

高性别比使得男性-男性竞争更加激烈，但是不同社会竞争的类型和寻找伴侣的策略都有差异，取决于女性认为什么更重要。也许恰好在中国，节约以及长期的财务稳定比礼物以及短期物质利益更被女性看重。

Entrepreneurship and hard work？ Check． 

创业和努力工作？是的。

In a different study， the same Wei and Zhang observe that private businesses were more likely to emerge in regions with a higher gender imbalance． Further， they find that son-only households were more likely to have started their own business than daughter-only households， and that this effect was more pronounced in counties with a more skewed sex ratio． They also show that households with a son in regions with a high sex ratio are willing to work longer hours and accept more unpleasant jobs．

魏尚进和张晓波在另一项研究中发现在性别失衡更严重的地区民营企业更有可能出现。此外，他们发现只有儿子的家庭比只有女儿的家庭更有可能创业，并且这一效应在性别失衡更严重的县级地区更明显。他们也发现性别比更高的地区有儿子的家庭工作意愿工作时间更长以及更愿意接受条件更差的工作。

2014年中国分年龄段性别比

横轴：每一位男性对应女性数量

纵轴：年龄段

数据来源：经济学人智库

The impact of rising sex ratios is thus real and policymakers should have potential unforeseen consequences on their radar． The question remains as to how these future developments will affect gender relations and women‘s welfare in Chinese society． The answer is far from straightforward．

所以性别比例上升的影响是实实在在的，政策制定者们应该提前考虑很难预知的各类问题。需要关注的是这些未来的各种可能发展将如何影响两性之间的关系以及中国社会中女性的福利。答案并非一目了然。

According to most standard measures of gender equality such as labour participation rates and wage equality， the situation for women will worsen． If the evidence provided by these studies is instructive， financial power will be more concentrated in the hands of men as intensified marriage competition forces them to work harder and save more． Women will become increasingly financially dependent on their husbands．

根据大多衡量性别平等的标准指标，例如劳动参与率和同工同酬，女性将面临的状况可能会恶化。如果以上的研究提到的证据有指导作用的话，婚姻市场的竞争加剧将导致男性工作更努力，存钱更积极，同时财政大权会更多的集中在男性手中。与此同时，女性在财政上会变得更加依赖她们的丈夫。

At the same time， these developments have as their ultimate cause the increased bargaining position of women vis-a-vis men， dictated by the laws of demand and supply． 

与此同时，根据供需原则，性别比例的失调会导致双方在婚姻市场的议价能力发生变化。

While the economic gap between men and women may get wider， family dynamics may improve． A number of studieson both humans and non-humans have found that increased mating competition among males leads to greater paternal investment （men becoming better fathers）， as well as increased marriage rates． Perhaps the outcome will be a Chinese woman who does not work yet commands greater authority in a relationship． 

虽然男性跟女性在经济方面的差距扩大，家庭的动态可能会改善。有文献指出，不光是针对人类也有针对非人类的研究，发现婚姻市场上的激烈竞争会导致男性提高对下一代的投资（变成更好的父亲），以及提高的结婚率。也许接下来发生的会是一位不工作的女性在两性关系中要求更高的话语权。 

Moreover， nature has a way of restoring things balance to things． Female animal species have been observed to adopt counter-strategies to deal with heightened male aggression and competitiveness． In the case of the infanticidal gorilla， a commonly-seen response is for the female to begin mating with multiple males so as to confuse the offending male as to which offspring is actually his own． 

大自然总会重归万物于平衡。雌性动物会针对雄性更有进攻性和竞争性的特点采取相应的对抗策略。对于大猩猩种群中存在的谋杀幼崽的行为，雌猩猩通常的响应是开始跟很多不同的雄猩猩交配从而使想要冒犯的雄猩猩分不清楚哪个幼崽是他自己的。

There is also increasing evidencethat females manipulate the sex ratio of their offspring to maximise their chances at having grandchildren． Too many males means there is a chance that a son will not get to reproduce． Thus， a female is a safer bet．

越来越多的证据也表明，雌猩猩会操纵下一代的性别比例来最大程度增加延续后代的概率。太多的下一代雄性意味着有的雄性可能无法继续繁殖，此时生一个雌性会是更为稳妥的选择。

Throughout history， most recorded instances of large sex ratio imbalances have involved a surplus of females as a result of war． China‘s case is thus unprecedented， it is hard to predict how things will pan out over the longer term． 

多数载入史册的大规模性别失衡是由于战争导致的女性剩余。中国男性剩余的现状并无经验可循，很难预测长期发展趋势。

The abolition of the one-child policy， one of the main causes of sex-selective abortion in China， means that the sex ratio imbalance may well be a blip in history． Whether--and to what extent--the damage has already been done is， perhaps， a question for the baboons．

之前的一孩政策是中国大量基于性别的选择性流产主要原因之一，随着此项政策的取消，性别失衡可能在历史场合中只是沧海一粟。是否--并且何种程度——损害已经形成并无法逆转，也许是只有狒狒才知道的问题。


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